Patriots vs. Bills Week 13 simulation predicts a surprising result

On its face, Monday’s matchup with the Buffalo Bills looks like the New England Patriots’ toughest challenge yet: a primetime game in a hostile environment against a division rival hellbent on regaining the AFC East lead.

But the Patriots are also the hottest team in football, and one prediction model doesn’t see the Bills slowing them down in Week 13.

Our partners at Strat-O-Matic — who at this point five weeks ago nearly predicted the exact post-week 12 records for both New England and Buffalo — ran a simulation of Monday night’s game in Buffalo, and Patriots fans will be pleased with the result.

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Strat-O-Matic forecasts a 33-13 Patriots rout, with the Patriots jumping out to a 13-point lead in the first half and outscoring the Bills 20-3 down the stretch. The convincing win moves New England to 9-4 and drops Buffalo to 7-5, giving Bill Belichick’s club a 1.5-game cushion in the division entering its bye week.

Here’s how things played out in this simulation.

Mac Jones easily wins QB battle

Josh Allen might be the more talented quarterback, but he looked like the rookie in this simulation.

Allen completes just 43.8% of his passes (14 for 32) for 157 yards and throws three interceptions to one touchdown pass to finish with a 30.3 passer rating, the second-worst of his career. Allen adds 67 rushing yards on five…

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